Takaitawa:Sabanin da ke tsakanin wadata da buƙatu na ɗaya daga cikin dalilan da ke haifar da hauhawar farashin nickel, amma a bayan yanayin kasuwa mai tsanani, ƙarin hasashe a cikin masana'antar sun kasance "kauri" (wanda Glencore ke jagoranta) da kuma "marasa amfani" (wanda akasari ta Tsingshan Group). .
Kwanan nan, tare da rikici tsakanin Rasha da Ukraine a matsayin fuse, LME (London Metal Exchange) makomar nickel ta barke a cikin kasuwar "epic".
Sabanin da ke tsakanin wadata da buƙatu na ɗaya daga cikin dalilan da ke haifar da hauhawar farashin nickel, amma a bayan yanayin kasuwa mai tsanani, ƙarin hasashe a cikin masana'antar shine cewa manyan sojojin bangarorin biyu sune "bijimi" (wanda Glencore ke jagoranta) da " fanko" (yafi ta rukunin Tsingshan).
LME nickel kasuwar ƙarshen lokacin ƙayyadaddun lokaci
A ranar 7 ga Maris, farashin nickel na LME ya haura daga dalar Amurka 30,000/ton (farashin buɗewa) zuwa dalar Amurka 50,900/ton (farashin sasantawa), haɓakar kwana ɗaya da kusan kashi 70%.
A ranar 8 ga Maris, farashin nickel na LME ya ci gaba da hauhawa, yana tashi zuwa iyakar dalar Amurka 101,000/ton, sannan kuma ya koma dalar Amurka 80,000/ton. A cikin kwanakin ciniki guda biyu, farashin nickel na LME ya tashi da kusan 248%.
Da karfe 4:00 na yamma ranar 8 ga Maris, LME ta yanke shawarar dakatar da cinikin makomar nickel tare da jinkirta isar da duk kwangilolin nickel din da aka shirya bayarwa tun a ranar 9 ga Maris.
A ranar 9 ga Maris, kungiyar Tsingshan ta amsa cewa za ta maye gurbin farantin karfen nickel na cikin gida tare da babban farantin nickel dinsa, kuma ya ware isasshiyar wuri don isar da tashoshi daban-daban.
A ranar 10 ga Maris, LME ta ce ta yi shirin daidaita matsayi mai tsawo da gajere kafin sake bude kasuwancin nickel, amma bangarorin biyu sun kasa mayar da martani mai kyau.
Daga 11 zuwa 15 ga Maris, LME nickel ya ci gaba da dakatar da shi.
A ranar 15 ga Maris, LME ta ba da sanarwar cewa kwangilar nickel za ta ci gaba da ciniki a ranar 16 ga Maris lokacin gida. Kungiyar Tsingshan ta bayyana cewa za ta hada kai tare da hadin gwiwar samar da rancen kudi don rabon nickel na Tsingshan da bukatun sasantawa.
A takaice dai, Rasha, a matsayin wani muhimmin mai fitar da albarkatun nickel, an sanya takunkumi saboda yakin Rasha da Ukraine, wanda ya haifar da rashin iyawar nickel na Rasha a kan LME, wanda ya dogara da dalilai masu yawa kamar rashin iya sake cika albarkatun nickel a ciki. Kudu maso Gabashin Asiya a cikin kan kari, umarnin rukunin Tsingshan na shinge ba zai yiwu ba a isar da shi akan lokaci, wanda ya haifar da amsa sarkar.
Akwai alamomi daban-daban da ke nuna cewa har yanzu wannan taron da ake kira "Gajeren Matsala" bai ƙare ba, kuma har yanzu ana ci gaba da sadarwa da wasa tsakanin masu ruwa da tsaki na dogon lokaci da gajeru, LME, da cibiyoyin kuɗi.
Yin amfani da wannan a matsayin dama, wannan labarin zai yi ƙoƙarin amsa tambayoyi masu zuwa:
1. Me yasa karfen nickel ya zama abin da ake mayar da hankali kan wasan babban birnin?
2. Shin wadatar albarkatun nickel sun wadatar?
3. Nawa ne karuwar farashin nickel zai shafi sabuwar kasuwar motocin makamashi?
Nickel don baturin wuta ya zama sabon sandar girma
Tare da saurin haɓaka sabbin motocin makamashi a duniya, wanda ya mamaye yanayin babban nickel da ƙarancin cobalt a cikin batir lithium na ternary, nickel don batura masu ƙarfi yana zama sabon sandar ci gaban nickel.
Masana'antar ta yi hasashen cewa nan da shekara ta 2025, batirin na uku na duniya zai kai kusan kashi 50%, wanda manyan batura masu karfin nickel za su kai sama da kashi 83%, kuma adadin batir mai lamba 5 zai ragu zuwa kasa da kashi 17%. Bukatar nickel kuma za ta karu daga ton 66,000 a cikin 2020 zuwa ton 620,000 a cikin 2025, tare da matsakaicin haɓakar fili na shekara-shekara na 48% a cikin shekaru huɗu masu zuwa.
Dangane da hasashen, buƙatun nickel na batirin wutar lantarki kuma zai ƙaru daga ƙasa da 7% a halin yanzu zuwa 26% a cikin 2030.
A matsayinsa na jagoran duniya a cikin sabbin motocin makamashi, halayen "nickel hoarding" na Tesla ya kusan hauka. Babban jami'in Tesla Musk ya kuma ambata sau da yawa cewa albarkatun nickel sune babbar ƙulli na Tesla.
Gaogong Lithium ya lura cewa tun daga 2021, Tesla ya ci gaba da yin haɗin gwiwa tare da kamfanin hakar ma'adinai na New Caledonia na Faransa Proni Resources, Ostiraliya mai hakar ma'adinai BHP Billiton, Brazil Vale, Kamfanin hakar ma'adinai na Kanada Giga Metals, Amurka mai hakar ma'adinai Talon Metals, da dai sauransu. Yawancin kamfanonin hakar ma'adinai sun sanya hannu. adadin yarjejeniyoyin wadata na dogon lokaci don tattarawar nickel.
Bugu da kari, kamfanonin da ke cikin sarkar masana'antar batir kamar CATL, GEM, Huayou Cobalt, Zhongwei, da rukunin Tsingshan suma suna kara karfin ikonsu kan albarkatun nickel.
Wannan yana nufin cewa sarrafa albarkatun nickel daidai yake da ƙwarewar tikitin zuwa hanyar dala tiriliyan.
Glencore shine babban mai siyar da kayayyaki a duniya kuma ɗaya daga cikin manyan masu sake yin fa'ida a duniya da masu sarrafa kayan da ke ɗauke da nickel, tare da tarin ayyukan hakar ma'adinai masu alaƙa da nickel a Kanada, Norway, Australia da New Coledonia. dukiya. A cikin 2021, kudaden shiga na kadarorin nickel na kamfanin zai zama dalar Amurka biliyan 2.816, karuwar shekara-shekara da kusan kashi 20%.
Dangane da bayanan LME, tun daga ranar 10 ga Janairu, 2022, rabon kuɗin ajiyar nickel na gaba da abokin ciniki ɗaya ke riƙe a hankali ya karu daga 30% zuwa 39%, kuma ya zuwa farkon Maris, adadin adadin kuɗin da aka samu sito ya wuce 90% .
Dangane da wannan girman, kasuwa ta yi hasashen cewa bijimai a cikin wannan dogon gajeren wasan suna iya zama Glencore.
A gefe guda, ƙungiyar Tsingshan ta karya ta hanyar fasahar shirye-shiryen "NPI (irin nickel pig iron daga laterite nickel ore) - babban nickel matte", wanda ya rage farashin sosai kuma ana sa ran zai karya tasirin nickel sulfate akan nickel mai tsabta. (tare da abun ciki na nickel wanda bai wuce 99.8% ba, wanda kuma aka sani da nickel na farko).
A gefe guda kuma, 2022 ita ce shekarar da za a fara aiwatar da sabon aikin na rukunin Tsingshan a Indonesia. Tsingshan yana da kyakkyawan tsammanin haɓaka don ƙarfin samar da kansa wanda ake ginawa. A cikin Maris 2021, Tsingshan ya sanya hannu kan yarjejeniyar samar da nickel mai girma tare da Huayou Cobalt da Zhongwei Co., Ltd. Babban nickel matte.
Ya kamata a nuna cewa buƙatun LME don samfuran isar da nickel ɗin nickel ne tsantsa, kuma babban nickel matte shine matsakaicin samfur wanda ba za a iya amfani da shi ba don bayarwa. Qingshan tsantsa nickel ana shigo da shi ne daga Rasha. An dakatar da nickel na Rasha daga yin ciniki saboda yakin Rasha da Ukraine, wanda ya fi girma mafi ƙarancin nickel na duniya, wanda ya jefa Qingshan cikin haɗarin "babu kayan da za a daidaita".
Daidai saboda wannan ne dogon gajeren wasan nickel karfe yana kusa.
Abubuwan nickel na duniya da wadata
Dangane da Binciken Kasa da Kasa na Amurka (USGS), ya zuwa karshen 2021, ajiyar nickel na duniya (tabbatattun ma'ajiyar ajiyar kasa) sun kai tan miliyan 95.
Daga cikin su, Indonesia da Ostiraliya suna da kimanin tan miliyan 21 bi da bi, suna da kashi 22%, suna matsayi na biyu; Brazil tana da kashi 17% na ajiyar nickel na tan miliyan 16, matsayi na uku; Rasha da Philippines suna da kashi 8% da 5% bi da bi. %, matsayi na huɗu ko na biyar. Kasashen TOP5 suna da kashi 74% na albarkatun nickel na duniya.
Rikicin nickel na kasar Sin ya kai tan miliyan 2.8, wanda ya kai kashi 3%. A matsayinta na babbar mai amfani da albarkatun nickel, kasar Sin ta dogara sosai kan shigo da albarkatun nickel, tare da yawan shigo da kayayyaki sama da kashi 80 cikin dari na shekaru masu yawa.
Dangane da yanayin ma'adinan, sinadarin nickel an fi raba shi zuwa nickel sulfide da nickel laterite, tare da rabon kusan 6:4. Na farko yana cikin Ostiraliya, Rasha da sauran yankuna, kuma na karshen yana cikin Indonesia, Brazil, Philippines da sauran yankuna.
Dangane da kasuwar aikace-aikacen, buƙatun nickel galibi shine kera bakin karfe, gami da batura masu ƙarfi. Bakin karfe yana da kusan kashi 72%, gami da simintin gyare-gyare na kusan kashi 12%, kuma nickel na batura ya kai kusan kashi 7%.
A baya can, akwai hanyoyi guda biyu masu zaman kansu masu zaman kansu a cikin sarkar samar da nickel: "latterite nickel-nickel pig iron/nickel iron-bakin karfe" da "nickel sulfide-pure nickel-battery nickel".
A lokaci guda kuma, kasuwannin samarwa da buƙatun nickel suma suna fuskantar rashin daidaituwa a hankali a hankali. A gefe guda, yawancin ayyukan ƙarfe na nickel alade da aka samar da tsarin RKEF an sanya su a cikin aiki, wanda ya haifar da ragowar dangi na nickel pig iron; a gefe guda, saboda saurin haɓaka sabbin motocin makamashi, batura Ci gaban nickel ya haifar da ƙarancin ƙarancin nickel.
Bayanai daga hukumar kididdigar karafa ta duniya sun nuna cewa za a samu rarar nickel ton 84,000 a shekarar 2020. Daga shekarar 2021, bukatar nickel a duniya za ta karu sosai. Siyar da sabbin motocin makamashi ya haifar da haɓakar ƙarancin amfani da nickel, kuma ƙarancin wadata a kasuwannin nickel na duniya zai kai tan 144,300 a cikin 2021.
Koyaya, tare da ci gaban fasahar sarrafa samfur na tsaka-tsaki, hanyar samar da tsari biyu da aka ambata a sama tana karye. Na farko, ƙaramar tama mai ƙarancin ƙima na iya samar da nickel sulfate ta hanyar rigar matsakaicin samfurin tsarin HPAL; na biyu, tama mai daraja mai girma na iya samar da baƙin ƙarfe na nickel alade ta hanyar tsarin pyrotechnic na RKEF, sannan ya wuce ta hanyar busa mai canzawa don samar da matte nickel mai daraja, wanda kuma yana samar da nickel sulfate. Ya fahimci yiwuwar aikace-aikacen takin nickel na laterite a cikin sabon masana'antar makamashi.
A halin yanzu, ayyukan samarwa ta hanyar amfani da fasahar HPAL sun haɗa da Ramu, Moa, Coral Bay, Taganito, da dai sauransu. A lokaci guda kuma, aikin Qingmeibang wanda CATL da GEM suka zuba jari, aikin Huayue nickel-cobalt wanda Huayou Cobalt ya saka, da Huafei nickel. -Cobalt aikin da Yiwei ya saka duk ayyukan aiwatar da HPAL ne.
Bugu da kari, an fara aiwatar da aikin babban matte na nickel wanda kungiyar Tsingshan ta jagoranta, wanda kuma ya bude gibi tsakanin nickel da nickel sulfate na baya-bayan nan, kuma ya fahimci sauya sinadarin nickel alade tsakanin bakin karfe da sabbin masana'antu na makamashi.
Ra'ayin masana'antu shi ne cewa a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci, ƙaddamar da ƙarfin samar da nickel matte mai girma bai kai ga girman raguwar samar da abubuwan nickel ba, kuma ci gaban samar da nickel sulfate har yanzu yana dogara ne akan narkar da nickel na farko kamar su. nickel wake / nickel foda. kula da karfi Trend.
A cikin dogon lokaci, amfani da nickel a cikin filayen gargajiya kamar bakin karfe ya ci gaba da ci gaba, kuma yanayin saurin girma a fagen batura masu ƙarfi ya tabbata. An saki ƙarfin samar da aikin "nickel pig iron-high nickel matte" aikin, kuma aikin tsarin HPAL zai shiga lokacin samar da yawan jama'a a cikin 2023. Babban buƙatar albarkatun nickel zai kiyaye daidaito tsakanin wadata da buƙata a cikin nan gaba.
Tasirin hauhawar farashin nickel akan sabuwar kasuwar abin hawa makamashi
A gaskiya ma, saboda hauhawar farashin nickel, samfurin Tesla's Model 3 high-properformance version da Model Y tsawon rai, babban fasali ta amfani da manyan batura na nickel duk sun karu da yuan 10,000.
Dangane da kowane GWh na babban nickel ternary lithium baturi (daukar NCM 811 a matsayin misali), ana buƙatar ton ƙarfe 750 na nickel, kuma kowane GWh na matsakaici da ƙananan nickel (5 series, 6 series) ternary lithium baturi yana buƙatar 500-600 karfe ton na nickel. Sannan farashin rukunin nickel ya karu da yuan 10,000 kan ko wane tan karfe, wanda hakan ke nuna cewa farashin batirin lithium na ternary a kowace GWh ya karu da kusan yuan miliyan 5 zuwa yuan miliyan 7.5.
Ƙididdigar ƙima shine lokacin da farashin nickel ya kasance dalar Amurka 50,000 / ton, farashin Tesla Model 3 (76.8KWh) zai karu da yuan 10,500; kuma lokacin da farashin nickel ya hau zuwa US $ 100,000 / ton, farashin Tesla Model 3 zai karu. An samu karuwar kusan yuan 28,000.
Tun daga shekarar 2021, tallace-tallacen sabbin motocin makamashi a duniya ya karu, kuma kasuwar batir mai karfin nickel ya karu.
Musamman manyan nau'ikan motocin lantarki na ketare galibi suna ɗaukar hanyar fasaha ta nickel, wanda ya haifar da haɓakar ƙarfin shigar da manyan batura na nickel a kasuwannin duniya, gami da CATL, Panasonic, LG Energy, Samsung SDI, SKI da sauran manyan kamfanonin batir a China, Japan da Koriya ta Kudu.
Dangane da tasiri, a gefe guda, canjin halin yanzu na nickel alade baƙin ƙarfe zuwa babban matte nickel ya haifar da jinkirin sakin aikin samar da aikin saboda rashin isasshen tattalin arziki. Farashin nickel ya ci gaba da hauhawa, wanda zai kara karfin samar da manyan ayyukan nickel matte na Indonesiya don hanzarta fitar da kayayyaki.
A gefe guda kuma, sakamakon tashin farashin kayan masarufi, sabbin motocin makamashi sun fara tashin farashi tare. Masana'antu gabaɗaya suna cikin damuwa cewa idan farashin kayan nickel ya ci gaba da haɓaka, samarwa da siyar da samfuran nickel masu ƙarfi na sabbin motocin makamashi na iya ƙaruwa ko iyakance a wannan shekara.
Lokacin aikawa: Afrilu-12-2022